The sharp decline of coronavirus in Pakistan is a welcoming but somewhat puzzling news to health professionals. According to the latest corona update in Pakistan, both the number of hospitalized cases and deaths have seen a steady drop. A few months ago, when the coronavirus was spreading like wildfire, a decline of more than 80% from its peak is really good news.
The reasons of this decline are still unspecified but
according to Dr Faisal Mehmood, a leading infectious diseases’ specialist at
the Aga Khan University Hospital, “the role of innate, non-specific immunity in
slowing down COVID-19 is not known. However, we do see a lot of sick people
here as well. Research is ongoing on this.” He further added when asked about
the possibility of humidity as a factor; “Yes and no. Very dry air may help the
droplet particles travel further in closed, likely ventilated settings.
However, very high humidity may also increase the viral spread.”
Dr Rana Muhammad Safdar, an epidemiologist at the NationalEmergency Operation Centre (EOC), Islamabad, believes “non-specific immunity”
could be the reason behind the sudden drop of coronavirus in Pakistan. “Our
population has been exposed to so many vaccines in their lifetimes, including
BCG (Bacillus Calmette–Guérin) vaccine, which is primarily used against
tuberculosis and OPV, that they must have strong immune responses against
several other pathogens, including the novel coronavirus. This non-specific
immunity is playing an important role in slowing down the spread of this virus
and reduced mortality, as compared to other countries of the world, in
Pakistan.”
He also shared the same opinion as Dr Faisal Mehmood and
cited humidity as a possible variable.
Another grim possibility behind this latest corona update inPakistan could be the decline in testing as well. According to the latest update
in data, experts have recorded a noticeable decline in testing by at least a
quarter. Officials are concerned as to why this has happened. Hopefully it’s
because the rate of contracting the coronavirus has decreased in Pakistan.
All these reasons are still conjecture at this point and a
lot of research still needs to be done to overcome coronavirus in Pakistan.
However, the future is still uncertain, and we must not drop
our guards yet and keep practicing all SOP’s for the time being.